Muleskinner

Issue date: 12/7/06 Section: News

Expert opinion- Dr. Larry Sabato, regarded by the Wall Street Journal as the most-quoted professor in the country, spoke to UCM about the midterm elections Wednesday.

Larry Sabato Ph.D., of the University of Virginia, came to Central Dec. 6 to give a presentation in support of his new book, The Sixth Year Itch.

His lecture, set up by the Department of Political Science and Geography, focused on the causes and dynamics of the congressional power shift in the recent midterm elections, as well as presidential prospects in 2008.

"We have funding for speakers, and the political science department thought that this would help to educate students," said James Staab, department chair.

Sabato explained that his title, The Sixth Year Itch, is a term used when the opposite political party of an incumbent president takes control of Congress during the midterm.
Presidents Teddy Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, he said, all saw a legislative power shift in the middle of their last terms.

"Sixth-year elections follow a clear pattern," Sabato said, with Bill Clinton as the only exception, due to losing congressional seats directly after his initial election.

Sabato said the Democratic victory in the latest midterm was won by Independents, with a 60 percent to 40 percent split.
"Americans are centrists; they are pragmatists," he said.

As one example of the power shift, Sabato pointed to Montana, which is traditionally seen as a Republican state.

"Montana, that deeply red state, has two democratic senators and democratic governor now," he said.

Sabato also took issue with current election maps in newspapers and T.V. programs, saying they represent space more than actual voting trends among populations.

One issue, Sabato said, that was central in the last election and will likely be the deciding factor in the next is the war in Iraq. He said if President Bush does not opt out by then, the Republican Party will probably lose the presidency.

However, he also said while Bush Sr. abandoned the war, the current president will not change course.

"Dad's a pragmatist and a realist; the son is much more of an ideologue," Sabato said.

Continued...

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